Feasibility Evaluation of the ECO-C3DP Machine Production Business for Plastic Waste Recycling under Stochastic Market Conditions

Abstract

This study evaluates the commercial feasibility of an integrated shredder and 3D printer (ECO-C3DP) machine for the MSME segment through the integration of eco-modular architecture and Techno-Economic Analysis (TEA) based on stochastic Monte Carlo simulation. The technical evaluation results indicate that the machine architecture is divided into four functional modules with a Modularity for End-of-Life (MEOL) score of 0.6269, placing the product in the ideal Region A quadrant characterized by ease of disassembly and maintenance efficiency. Deterministically, an initial investment of IDR 800,759,131 with a recommended selling price of IDR 65,818,471/unit is proven to be highly feasible, generating an NPV of IDR 908,669,032, an IRR of 45.76%, a PBP of 2.61 years, and a BCR of 1.40. Under stochastic market conditions across 1,000 iterations, the capital return certainty (NPV≥0) reaches 76.9% under the triangular distribution and 66.6% under the uniform distribution, with a minimum sales tipping point of ≥13"-" 14" units/year" . Based on Government Regulation (PP) No. 7 of 2021, this business unit operates in the Micro Enterprise category with a 27.2%–32.2% transition probability of upgrading to a Small Enterprise. The commercialization strategy is directed through a Business-to-Government-to-Community (B2G2C) partnership using an Estate Model scheme based on the LKPP E-Catalog listing and TKDN certification.